A recent market research report from Kalshi highlights a significant lead for Republican candidate Donald Trump against his Democratic rival Kamala Harris on prediction markets. The report outlines the case for broad support for Trump and suggests that the election might not be as close as many anticipate.
Trump’s Lead on Kalshi and Other Prediction Markets
According to the report, Trump is currently leading against Harris 56-44 on Kalshi, with a surge occurring in early October – a few days after Trump’s surge on Polymarket. This has led to accusations that dark money is manipulating markets, but a closer look at the data suggests that there might be more to it.
The Rise of Trump’s Odds on Kalshi
Jack Such, a market research analyst at Kalshi, noted in a recent report that Harris is falling in key demographics and has lost ground in every ‘Blue Wall’ state over the past three weeks. This underperformance is particularly notable among black men, who traditionally support Democratic candidates.
| Prediction Market | Trump’s Odds of Winning |
| — | — |
| Kalshi | 56% |
| Polymarket | 58% |
| Betfair (U.K.) | 55% |
As Such observed, Trump’s odds of winning the popular vote are rising, and his chances in the main election contract are in line with his prospects in the popular vote. This suggests that there is not a misprice in the markets, but rather a reflection of Trump’s widespread support.
The Role of North Carolina in Trump’s Surge
Trump’s projected popular vote surge is largely fueled by North Carolina, where his landslide win odds jumped from 3.5% to 19%. Gains are also observed in Pennsylvania (+4%) and Michigan, reflecting a weakening ‘Blue Wall’ for Harris.
Dark Money or a French Connection?
The massive pro-Trump bets on Polymarket, which does not have a know-your-customer (KYC) mechanism, by one account – which appears to have a collection of affiliated accounts – has many within the political forecasting community wondering if dark money is trying to manipulate the markets.
The Mysterious Bettor: Fredi9999
A mysterious high-stakes bettor, identified as ‘Fredi9999,’ has spent $25 million solely betting on Trump across prediction markets, according to research done by Polymarket whale ‘Domer’. Fredi appears to operate under multiple accounts – Fredi9999, PrincessCaro, Michie, and Theo – funded through sizeable Kraken deposits (in precise amounts like $500,000 or $1 million).
Each account follows a similar betting pattern, concentrating exclusively on Trump, likely to disguise the trades as individual actions rather than one coordinated investment. Domer briefly chatted with Fredi on Discord, and crowd-sourced linguistic analysis of their conversation points to someone who has French as a mother tongue.
The Question Remains: What is Fredi’s Motivation?
While many have pointed to a hole in the theory that this is dark money at play – Trump’s surge is reflected across multiple markets, and in the polls as well – the question remains: what is driving Fredi’s massive bets on Trump?
Is it an operative trying to pour in dark money to influence an election? Or is it just a wealthy French trader with a strong pro-Trump conviction? The answer, for now, remains unclear.
The Implications of Kalshi’s Report
Kalshi’s report highlights the importance of understanding the underlying data and trends in prediction markets. While Trump’s lead may be significant, it is essential to consider the broader context and not jump to conclusions about dark money or manipulation.
As we enter the final weeks of the campaign, one thing is clear: the election will be closely watched by many, and the markets will continue to reflect the shifting landscape of public opinion.
The Role of Prediction Markets in Election Forecasting
Prediction markets have become increasingly important tools for election forecasting. They provide a unique window into public opinion and can help identify trends that may not be apparent through traditional polling methods.
Kalshi’s report highlights the potential of prediction markets to inform our understanding of the election outcome. By analyzing the data from multiple markets, we can gain valuable insights into the underlying dynamics of the campaign.
Conclusion
The final weeks of the campaign will be crucial in determining the outcome of the election. Kalshi’s report suggests that Trump has broad support and may not face a close contest against Harris.
However, as we examine the data from prediction markets, it is essential to consider the potential for manipulation or dark money influencing the outcome. The case of Fredi9999 highlights the need for transparency and accountability in these markets.
As we continue to monitor the election landscape, one thing is clear: the markets will play an increasingly important role in shaping our understanding of the campaign’s dynamics.